RC
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered net revenues of $0.818B and Adjusted EPS of $0.23, essentially in line with internal expectations but modestly below Wall Street consensus; management cited retailer destocking, later Easter timing, and foam declines as key headwinds .
- Guidance was tempered: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA lowered to $650–$670M (from $670–$690M) and Adjusted EPS to $1.54–$1.61 (from $1.61–$1.68), reflecting pricing to offset tariff-driven cost headwinds and softer retail volumes .
- Management signaled more dynamic macro conditions from tariff announcements ($100–$200M annualized direct/indirect cost headwinds) but reiterated pricing power and productivity actions to neutralize impacts; Q2 2025 guide calls for net revenues down 2–5%, Adjusted EBITDA $155–$165M, and Adjusted EPS $0.35–$0.39 .
- Strategic initiatives continue: automation and network optimization, revenue growth management (RGM), and targeted innovation/distribution wins (e.g., Hefty Fabuloso scents, Hefty Compostable cutlery leveraging Atacama technology), with benefits expected to begin late 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Share gains and category outperformance: “outperformed our categories by two points” at retail, with gains in foil, waste bags, food bags, and non-foam tableware; promo spend flat YoY, highlighting innovation and distribution gains .
- Innovation momentum: Hefty Fabuloso waste bags extended with new scents; Hefty Compostable cutlery is first commercialization of Atacama technology; Reynolds Kitchens Air Fryer cups noted among new cooking/baking products .
- Balance sheet actions: refinanced remaining $1.645B term loan to 2032, SOFR +175 bps, improving flexibility; leverage at 2.3x TTM Adjusted EBITDA .
What Went Wrong
- Retail destocking and Easter shift reduced retail volumes 4% and retail net revenues 3%; non-retail gains only partially offset .
- Hefty Tableware suffered: net revenues -$29M to $179M, Adjusted EBITDA -$13M to $17M, driven by foam declines and destocking; non-foam tableware still grew and outperformed .
- Tariffs and commodity impacts raised cost outlook ($100–$200M annualized); FY25 EBITDA and EPS guidance lowered, with pricing and productivity required to offset .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results vs Prior Quarters
Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)
KPIs and Mix
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We outperformed our categories by two points at retail, capturing share… and did so without an increase in promotional spend,” highlighting innovation and distribution gains .
- “We delivered our earnings guide in spite of unanticipated retailer destocking” and are “investing in high-return work streams to drive future performance” .
- “Adjusted EBITDA… at the midpoint of our guide… Adjusted EPS was unchanged at $0.23 vs the first quarter of 2024,” despite destocking and foam declines .
- “We currently estimate $100 million to $200 million in cost headwinds… considering both the direct and indirect impact from tariffs,” to be offset via pricing, productivity, and cost reductions .
- “Effective Jan 1, 2025, we have updated our segment reporting” to align international by category, with prior periods recast .
Q&A Highlights
- Destocking permanence: Management assumes Q1 destocking effect “flows through the balance of the year,” with no reversal assumed in guidance .
- Cost headwinds phasing: Pricing ranges tied to headwind ranges; cost flow-through timing 2–6 months depending on business; expect mitigation to show through year .
- Tariff impact composition: Roughly half of the mid-range headwind from commodities (e.g., aluminum), balance direct tariff impacts on imports; direct tariff exposure is single-digit percentage of COGS .
- Promotions and elasticity: Expect modest increase in Q2 promos to support distribution wins; 2025 promo levels similar to 2024; pricing designed around thresholds to manage elasticity .
- Channel mix: Retailers’ online/omnichannel in high-teens percent; company consistent; club and online gaining share; investments calibrated accordingly .
- Pantry loading ahead of tariffs seen in Q1; expected partial unwind in Q2 .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 vs Consensus: Revenue $818.0M vs $821.34M*, Primary EPS $0.23 vs $0.2313*, EBITDA $117.0M vs $119.74M* — a slight miss across all three, consistent with destocking and timing headwinds .
- FY 2025 Consensus vs Company Guide: EBITDA $662.85M* vs company $650–$670M; EPS $1.6307* vs company $1.54–$1.61 — consensus slightly above guidance midpoints, implying potential downward estimate revisions given tariff and elasticity commentary .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Q1 2025 Consensus vs Actuals
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term headwinds from retailer destocking, foam declines, and tariff-driven costs temper FY25 trajectory; management is proactively deploying pricing and productivity to neutralize cost inflation .
- Innovation/distribution wins remain a core growth driver (Fabuloso expansion, Presto Close rollout, compostable cutlery), with benefits expected to build through 2025 and into 2026 .
- Pricing power intact; management expects 2–4 points of pricing in FY25 to offset tariffs while carefully managing elasticities and price gaps to protect share .
- Balance sheet flexibility improved via refinancing (2032 maturity, SOFR+175), supporting stepped-up capex ($20–$40MM YoY) in automation and network optimization with attractive ROIs .
- Q2 2025 outlook embeds pantry-load unwind and limited pricing recognition timing; expect sequential improvement as pricing actions and resets flow through .
- Consensus appears modestly ahead of company midpoints for FY25; watch for estimate revisions and tariff developments as catalysts for the stock narrative .
- Dividend maintained at $0.23/share, underpinned by strong free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation .